Quarterly Research Letters

August 28, 2020

Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices...... Read More »

April 14, 2020

Equity bulls are coming into Q1 earnings reporting season amped up on Fed liquidity after a record $2.3 trillion of monetary stimulus announced last week. The problem is that the US economy just entered a massive asset bubble bursting recession.... Read More »

January 29, 2020

The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. Our views were strongly vindicated in February and over the course of that year.... Read More »

October 17, 2019

A breadth of deteriorating indicators is signaling an inflection point for the US stock market and economy. The percentage of inversions in the US yield curve surged to over 70% last month.... Read More »

July 23, 2019

We believe there is an opportunity to capitalize on a material downturn in the business cycle based on the composite of timing and imbalance indicators in Crescat’s 16-factor macro model.... Read More »

April 18, 2019

The year-to-date rally in global risk assets after the Fed flip appears to us to be a last gasp of speculative mania for the current economic cycle.... Read More »

December 31, 2018

We are happy to report estimates for Crescat’s 2018 performance:... Read More »

November 16, 2018

Crescat’s hedge funds capitalized on the turmoil in October and climbed to the top of the US hedge fund performance tables for the month and year.... Read More »

September 15, 2018

Our three best macro ideas today are complementary plays on the unwinding of… Read More »

May 11, 2018

With the Fed locked into a rate hike and quantitative tightening plan in… Read More »

January 26, 2018

“Believe me: We’re in a bubble right now. And the only thing that… Read More »

November 18, 2017

US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history, higher than prior… Read More »

August 4, 2017

History has proven that credit bubbles always burst. China by far is the… Read More »

May 1, 2017

By keeping interest rates on the world reserve currency too low for too… Read More »

January 10, 2017

Crescat’s hedge funds ended 2016 on a positive note after the Trump presidential… Read More »

October 3, 2016

Here we are again at the peak of another financial asset bubble. An… Read More »

June 30, 2016

The markets have been turbulent in the wake of the unexpected Brexit vote…. Read More »

March 16, 2016

We are pleased to announce that Crescat Global Macro Fund was recently named… Read More »

December 17, 2015

With pockets of weakness being exposed in the financial markets, Crescat’s three strategies… Read More »

August 26, 2015

China’s economic crisis is in full swing and Crescat has been well positioned… Read More »

June 11, 2015

Performance Update  We are pleased to report that the Crescat Global Macro Fund was… Read More »

March 17, 2015

Crescat nailed the oil trade in 2014, helping our hedge funds deliver some… Read More »

October 22, 2014

Ebola outbreak. China economic slowdown. Hong Kong protests. Russia/Ukraine conflict. U.S. military strikes in Iraq and Syria. Europe in recession. The Fed… Read More »

July 23, 2014

Over the long term, since each strategy’s inception, Crescat has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns based on high alpha, low beta, high absolute… Read More »

October 26, 2006

Fall 2006: Crescat lays out the macro case for the housing bust, financial crisis, and recession before it all unfolds. The housing market… Read More »