Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2020
October 27, 2020
History does not exactly repeat, but it often rhymes. The art and science of macro investing is comparing past business cycles with the present across a mosaic of different indicators and time frames to determine the most probable path forward for markets.... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2020
August 28, 2020
Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices...... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2020
April 14, 2020
Equity bulls are coming into Q1 earnings reporting season amped up on Fed liquidity after a record $2.3 trillion of monetary stimulus announced last week. The problem is that the US economy just entered a massive asset bubble bursting recession.... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2019
January 29, 2020
The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. Our views were strongly vindicated in February and over the course of that year.... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2019
October 17, 2019
A breadth of deteriorating indicators is signaling an inflection point for the US stock market and economy. The percentage of inversions in the US yield curve surged to over 70% last month.... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2019
July 23, 2019
We believe there is an opportunity to capitalize on a material downturn in the business cycle based on the composite of timing and imbalance indicators in Crescat’s 16-factor macro model.... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2019
April 18, 2019
The year-to-date rally in global risk assets after the Fed flip appears to us to be a last gasp of speculative mania for the current economic cycle.... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2018
December 31, 2018
We are happy to report estimates for Crescat’s 2018 performance:... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2018
November 16, 2018
Crescat’s hedge funds capitalized on the turmoil in October and climbed to the top of the US hedge fund performance tables for the month and year.... Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2018
September 15, 2018
Our three best macro ideas today are complementary plays on the unwinding of… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2018
May 11, 2018
With the Fed locked into a rate hike and quantitative tightening plan in… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2017
January 26, 2018
“Believe me: We’re in a bubble right now. And the only thing that… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2017
November 18, 2017
US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history, higher than prior… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2017
August 4, 2017
History has proven that credit bubbles always burst. China by far is the… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2017
May 1, 2017
By keeping interest rates on the world reserve currency too low for too… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2016
January 10, 2017
Crescat’s hedge funds ended 2016 on a positive note after the Trump presidential… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2016
October 3, 2016
Here we are again at the peak of another financial asset bubble. An… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2016
June 30, 2016
The markets have been turbulent in the wake of the unexpected Brexit vote…. Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2016
March 16, 2016
We are pleased to announce that Crescat Global Macro Fund was recently named… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2015
December 17, 2015
With pockets of weakness being exposed in the financial markets, Crescat’s three strategies… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2015
August 26, 2015
China’s economic crisis is in full swing and Crescat has been well positioned… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2015
June 11, 2015
Performance Update We are pleased to report that the Crescat Global Macro Fund was… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2015
March 17, 2015
Crescat nailed the oil trade in 2014, helping our hedge funds deliver some… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2014
October 22, 2014
Ebola outbreak. China economic slowdown. Hong Kong protests. Russia/Ukraine conflict. U.S. military strikes in Iraq and Syria. Europe in recession. The Fed… Read More »Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2014
July 23, 2014
Over the long term, since each strategy’s inception, Crescat has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns based on high alpha, low beta, high absolute… Read More »Blast From the Past: Crescat Capital Investor Letter Q4 2006
October 26, 2006
Fall 2006: Crescat lays out the macro case for the housing bust, financial crisis, and recession before it all unfolds. The housing market… Read More »